Arsenal head into Thursday’s clash with Brentford as favourites, with the Opta supercomputer assigning Mikel Arteta’s side a 55.6% chance of victory compared to the Bees’ 22.3%.
The Gunners lost their first Premier League visit to Brentford but have since won three straight meetings by an aggregate score of 7-1.
Brentford’s record in London derbies offers little encouragement. They have won just one of their last 11 at home in the Premier League, drawing six and losing four, and are winless in seven since a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace in August 2024.
Arsenal, by contrast, have thrived against capital rivals, losing only once in their last 23 London derbies and winning 14 of their last 20 away trips to fellow London sides.
Arteta himself boasts a 61% win rate in such fixtures, better than any manager with at least 20 derbies under their belt.
Arteta’s men were comfortable 3-0 winners over Sunderland in their last league outing, with Martín Zubimendi opening the scoring before Viktor Gyökeres struck twice.
The Swedish striker has faced scrutiny since his big-money move from Sporting CP but has answered with six goals across all competitions in 2026, more than any other Premier League player. He has now scored in back-to-back league games for the first time in an Arsenal shirt, though six of his eight goals have come against promoted sides.
Brentford, meanwhile, continue to impress under debut head coach Keith Andrews. They edged Newcastle 3-2 at St. James’ Park thanks to Dango Ouattara’s late winner, while Igor Thiago has been their talisman at home.
The Brazilian has scored nine goals in his last 10 Premier League home games, including four braces, and his six penalties this season put him behind only Kylian Mbappé and Nadiem Amiri across Europe’s top five leagues.
The Gtech Community Stadium has been a fortress, with Brentford’s seven home wins bettered only by Aston Villa, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Arsenal.
Yet their last outing there ended in a 2-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest, breaking a seven-game unbeaten run. A repeat of last season’s sequence, a loss to Forest followed by defeat to Arsenal, looms large.
